A comparative analysis of reports on the prevalence of transsexualism [draft in progress]

By Lynn Conway

September 6, 2007

[V 8-30-07]

  

In this report, we present a series of cross-comparisons and analyses of past studies of the prevalence of transsexualism, using the notation and methodology for the prevalence calculations presented by Olyslager and Conway [Olyslager and Conway 07] at WPATH 07: 

 

Olyslager, F. and Conway, L., “On the Calculation of the Prevalence of Transsexualism”,

presented at the WPATH 20th International Symposium, Chicago, Illinois, September 6, 2007

http://ai.eecs.umich.edu/people/conway/TS/Prevalence/Reports/Prevalence%20of%20Transsexualism.pdf

 

The Olyslager and Conway paper identifies critical factors leading to an incommensurability in the results presented in earlier papers, revealing that those earlier results cannot be directly cross-compared in any meaningful way.

 

However, by taking the incommensurability factors into account, we can reprocess the original data from the earlier papers and derive a series of commensurable results that are directly comparable across the entire set of studies.

 

Table 1 presents  derived commensurable results in "1:N" form (tabulating values of prevalence and incidence as "1 in N") for all major past studies of prevalence. Table 2 presents the same results in the form of "n out of 100,000".

 

In both tables the relevant studies are down the leftmost column (which contains links to PDF's of those papers for convenient reference).  Commensurable derived values for the various types of prevalence and incidence (as a function of the Olyslager-Conway parameters: active, inherent; mf, fm; TS, SH, HT, SRS) are then presented under the corresponding headings in the other columns.

 

Columns are included in the tables to identify the nationality of each study, and record whether a study portrayed its results as lower bounds (Y) or absolute values (N). The "doc" column links to an annotated set of notes and calculations about each study, while the "note" column links to notes below. Those notes and calculations were compiled during the research into analyses of earlier reports that led up to Olyslager-Conway report, and are in process of being updated now.

 

Note that Table 1 and Table 2 are also posted online as a spreadsheet, at the following page:

 

 

- - - draft in progress - - -

 

 

 

Cross-comparisons of reports on the prevalence of transsexualism:                      
by Lynn Conway [Update of 2-04-07]    
               
Table 1: Tabulation of reported results in the form "1 : N"        
     
Reference nat note doc LB P(TSImf) P(TSAmf) P(SHAmf) P(SHAfm) P(HTAmf) P(HTAfm) P(SRSImf) P(SRSAmf) P(SRSAfm) I(SHAmf) I(SHAfm) I(HTAmf) I(HTAfm) I(SRSAmf) I(SRSAfm)  
walinder68 SW  [1] X Y     1:37,000 1:103,000                        
walinder71 SW  [2] X Y                       1:500,000 1:500,000      
hoenig74 UK  [3] X Y     1:34,000 1:108,000                        
ross81 AU  [4] X N                   1:48,000 1:300,000          
eklund88 '80 NL  [5] X Y         1:45,000 1:200,000                     
     "   " ('83) "   " "         1:26,000 1:100,000                    
     "   " ('86) "   " "         1:18,000 1:54,000                    
tsoi88 SI  [6] X Y > 1:2,000            1:2,000 1:2,900 1:8,300              
bakker93 NL  [7] X N         1:11,900 1:30,400                    
landen96b SW  [8] X N                       1:710,000 1:710,000      
vankesteren96 NL  [9] X N         1:11,900 1:30,400   1:17,500 1:41,000              
weitzel96 DE                                      
wilson99 SC  [10] X N     1:7,700 1:31,000 1:12,800 1:52,000