Message Number: 478
From: Ali Saidi <saidi Æ umich.edu>
Date: Tue, 15 Aug 2006 11:44:36 -0400
Subject: Re: stupid feel-good "no liquids" rule
Here are a few amusing comics about the no-liquids rule:
http://www.wondermark.com/d/220.html
http://cosmicvariance.com/2006/08/12/liquid/

and an excerpt from Bruce Shneier's book Beyond Fear (pp133-137):

Good security has people in charge. People are resilient. People can  
improvise. People can be creative. People can develop on-the-spot  
solutions. People can detect attackers who cheat, and can attempt to  
maintain security despite the cheating. People can detect passive  
failures and attempt to recover. People are the strongest point in a  
security process. When a security system succeeds in the face of a  
new or coordinated or devastating attack, it’s usually due to the  
efforts of people.

On 14 December 1999, Ahmed Ressam tried to enter the U.S. by  
ferryboat from Victoria Island, British Columbia. In the trunk of his  
car, he had a suitcase bomb. His plan was to drive to Los Angeles  
International Airport, put his suitcase on a luggage cart in the  
terminal, set the timer, and then leave. The plan would have worked  
had someone not been vigilant.

Ressam had to clear customs before boarding the ferry. He had fake  
ID, in the name of Benni Antoine Noris, and the computer cleared him  
based on this ID. He was allowed to go through after a routine check  
of his car’s trunk, even though he was wanted by the Canadian police.  
On the other side of the Strait of Juan de Fuca, at Port Angeles,  
Washington, Ressam was approached by U.S. customs agent Diana Dean,  
who asked some routine questions and then decided that he looked  
suspicious. He was fidgeting, sweaty, and jittery. He avoided eye  
contact. In Dean’s own words, he was acting “hinky.” More questioning  
there was no one else crossing the border, so two other agents got  
involved--and more hinky behavior. Ressam’s car was eventually	
searched, and he was finally discovered and captured. It wasn’t any  
one thing that tipped Dean off; it was everything encompassed in the  
slang term “hinky.” But the system worked. The reason there wasn’t a  
bombing at LAX around Christmas in 1999 was because a knowledgeable  
person was in charge of security and paying attention.

There’s a dirty word for what Dean did that chilly afternoon in  
December, and it’s profiling. Everyone does it all the time. When you  
see someone lurking in a dark alley and change your direction to  
avoid him, you’re profiling. When a storeowner sees someone furtively  
looking around as she fiddles inside her jacket, that storeowner is  
profiling. People profile based on someone’s dress, mannerisms, tone  
of voice ... and yes, also on their race and ethnicity. When you see  
someone running toward you on the street with a bloody ax, you don't  
know for sure that he’s a crazed ax murderer. Perhaps he’s a butcher  
who’s actually running after the person next to you to give her the  
change she forgot. But you’re going to make a guess one way or	
another. That guess is an example of profiling.

To profile is to generalize. It’s taking characteristics of a  
population and applying them to an individual. People naturally have  
an intuition about other people based on different characteristics.  
Sometimes that intuition is right and sometimes it’s wrong, but it’s  
still a person’s first reaction. How good this intuition is as a  
countermeasure depends on two things: how accurate the intuition is  
and how effective it is when it becomes institutionalized or when the  
profile characteristics become commonplace.

One of the ways profiling becomes institutionalized is through	
computerization. Instead of Diana Dean looking someone over, a	
computer looks the profile over and gives it some sort of rating.  
Generally profiles with high ratings are further evaluated by people,  
although sometimes countermeasures kick in based on the computerized  
profile alone. This is, of course, more brittle. The computer can  
profile based only on simple, easy-to-assign characteristics: age,  
race, credit history, job history, et cetera. Computers don't get  
hinky feelings. Computers also can't adapt the way people can.

Profiling works better if the characteristics profiled are accurate.  
If erratic driving is a good indication that the driver is  
intoxicated, then that’s a good characteristic for a police officer  
to use to determine who he’s going to pull over. If furtively looking  
around a store or wearing a coat on a hot day is a good indication  
that the person is a shoplifter, then those are good characteristics  
for a store owner to pay attention to. But if wearing baggy trousers  
isn't a good indication that the person is a shoplifter, then the  
store owner is going to spend a lot of time paying undue attention to  
honest people with lousy fashion sense.

In common parlance, the term “profiling” doesn't refer to these  
characteristics. It refers to profiling based on characteristics like  
race and ethnicity, and institutionalized profiling based on those  
characteristics alone. During World War II, the U.S. rounded up over  
100,000 people of Japanese origin who lived on the West Coast and  
locked them in camps (prisons, really). That was an example of	
profiling. Israeli border guards spend a lot more time scrutinizing  
Arab men than Israeli women; that’s another example of profiling. In  
many U.S. communities, police have been known to stop and question  
people of color driving around in wealthy white neighborhoods  
(commonly referred to as “DWB”--Driving While Black). In all of these  
cases you might possibly be able to argue some security benefit, but  
the trade-offs are enormous: Honest people who fit the profile can  
get annoyed, or harassed, or arrested, when they’re assumed to be  
attackers.

For democratic governments, this is a major problem. It’s just wrong  
to segregate people into “more likely to be attackers” and “less  
likely to be attackers” based on race or ethnicity. It’s wrong for  
the police to pull a car over just because its black occupants are  
driving in a rich white neighborhood. It’s discrimination.

But people make bad security trade-offs when they’re scared, which is  
why we saw Japanese internment camps during World War II, and why  
there is so much discrimination against Arabs in the U.S. going on  
today. That doesn't make it right, and it doesn't make it effective  
security. Writing about the Japanese internment, for example, a 1983  
commission reported that the causes of the incarceration were rooted  
in “race prejudice, war hysteria, and a failure of political  
leadership.” But just because something is wrong doesn't mean that  
people won't continue to do it.
Ethics aside, institutionalized profiling fails because real  
attackers are so rare: Active failures will be much more common than  
passive failures. The great majority of people who fit the profile  
will be innocent. At the same time, some real attackers are going to  
deliberately try to sneak past the profile. During World War II, a  
Japanese American saboteur could try to evade imprisonment by  
pretending to be Chinese. Similarly, an Arab terrorist could dye his  
hair blond, practice an American accent, and so on.

Profiling can also blind you to threats outside the profile. If U.S.  
border guards stop and search everyone who’s young, Arab, and male,  
they’re not going to have the time to stop and search all sorts of  
other people, no matter how hinky they might be acting. On the other  
hand, if the attackers are of a single race or ethnicity, profiling  
is more likely to work (although the ethics are still questionable).  
It makes real security sense for El Al to spend more time  
investigating young Arab males than it does for them to investigate  
Israeli families. In Vietnam, American soldiers never knew which  
local civilians were really combatants; sometimes killing all of them  
was the security solution they chose.

If a lot of this discussion is abhorrent, as it probably should be,  
it’s the trade-offs in your head talking. It’s perfectly reasonable  
to decide not to implement a countermeasure not because it doesn’t  
work, but because the trade-offs are too great. Locking up every Arab- 
looking person will reduce the potential for Muslim terrorism, but no  
reasonable person would suggest it. (It’s an example of “winning the  
battle but losing the war.”) In the U.S., there are laws that  
prohibit police profiling by characteristics like ethnicity, because  
we believe that such security measures are wrong (and not simply  
because we believe them to be ineffective).

Still, no matter how much a government makes it illegal, profiling  
does occur. It occurs at an individual level, at the level of Diana  
Dean deciding which cars to wave through and which ones to  
investigate further. She profiled Ressam based on his mannerisms and  
his answers to her questions. He was Algerian, and she certainly  
noticed that. However, this was before 9/11, and the reports of the  
incident clearly indicate that she thought he was a drug smuggler;  
ethnicity probably wasn’t a key profiling factor in this case. In  
fact, this is one of the most interesting aspects of the story. That  
intuitive sense that something was amiss worked beautifully, even  
though everybody made a wrong assumption about what was wrong. Human  
intuition detected a completely unexpected kind of attack. Humans  
will beat computers at hinkiness-detection for many decades to come.

And done correctly, this intuition-based sort of profiling can be an  
excellent security countermeasure. Dean needed to have the training  
and the experience to profile accurately and properly, without	
stepping over the line and profiling illegally. The trick here is to  
make sure perceptions of risk match the actual risks. If those	
responsible for security profile based on superstition and wrong- 
headed intuition, or by blindly following a computerized profiling  
system, profiling won’t work at all. And even worse, it actually can  
reduce security by blinding people to the real threats.  
Institutionalized profiling can ossify a mind, and a person’s mind is  
the most important security countermeasure we have.

A couple more of his points on this matter(not from the book):
Whenever you design a security system with two ways through -- an  
easy way and a hard way -- you invite the attacker to take the easy  
way. Profile for young Arab males, and you'll get terrorists that are  
old non-Arab females. This paper (http://www.firstmonday.org/issues/ 
issue7_10/chakrabarti) looks at the security effectiveness of  
profiling versus random searching.

If we are going to increase security against terrorism, the young  
Arab males living in our country are precisely the people we want on  
our side. Discriminating against them in the name of security is not  
going to make them more likely to help.

Despite what many people think, terrorism is not confined to young  
Arab males. Shoe-bomber Richard Reid was British. Germaine Lindsay,  
one of the 7/7 London bombers, was Afro-Caribbean. Here are some more  
examples:

* In 1986, a 32-year-old Irish woman, pregnant at the time, was about  
to board an El Al flight from London to Tel Aviv when El Al security  
agents discovered an explosive device hidden in the false bottom of  
her bag. The woman’s boyfriend--the father of her unborn child--had  
hidden the bomb.

* In 1987, a 70-year-old man and a 25-year-old woman--neither of whom  
were Middle Eastern--posed as father and daughter and brought a bomb  
aboard a Korean Air flight from Baghdad to Thailand. En route to  
Bangkok, the bomb exploded, killing all on board.

* In 1999, men dressed as businessmen (and one dressed as a Catholic  
priest) turned out to be terrorist hijackers, who forced an Avianca  
flight to divert to an airstrip in Colombia, where some passengers  
were held as hostages for more than a year-and-half.

The 2002 Bali terrorists were Indonesian. The Chechnyan terrorists  
who downed the Russian planes were women. Timothy McVeigh and the  
Unibomber were Americans. The Basque terrorists are Basque, and Irish  
terrorists are Irish. Tha Tamil Tigers are Sri Lankan.

And many Muslims are not Arabs. Even worse, almost everyone who is  
Arab is not a terrorist -- many people who look Arab are not even  
Muslims. So not only are there an large number of false negatives --  
terrorists who don't meet the profile -- but there an enormous number  
of false positives: innocents that do meet the profile.

(all this was posted on his blog, however I thought people were more  
likely to read it if it was in the e-mail body itself)

Ali


On Aug 14, 2006, at 6:44 PM, Daniel Reeves wrote:

>> I'm glad that our airports are at least trying to ensure that I  
>> live to see that rosy future.
>
> It's like Yoda said.	Measures that do increase security good are.  
> Measures that "try" to increase security merely theatrical are.
>
> I support screening for guns and bombs.  Behavioral profiling  
> doesn't sound unreasonable to me.  Screening for knives and liquids  
> (for god's sake, our bodies are half liquid), no.
>
> Thanks to both Nates for pointing us to Bruce Schneier.  He's  
> really excellent.  Nate Clark's email included Schneier's short  
> response to the current situation.
>
> By the way, I'm willing to concede that the initial security	
> response may have been justified (though even that's a little  
> fishy, as Kevin points out).	But no reasonable person can walk  
> through the current security checks and say that it's anything but  
> a charade.
>
> -- 
> http://ai.eecs.umich.edu/people/dreeves  - -	search://"Daniel Reeves"
>
> "...While we must recognize that computers are machines that have  
> improved our lives in countless ways, we must also, by the same  
> token, recognize that they are the evil demon spawn of hell."  --  
> Dave Barry
>