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Here you have it, nothing factually incorrect in Bush's State of the Union
speech:
---------- Forwarded message ----------
Date: Wed, 1 Feb 2006 17:19:21 -0800
From: FactCheck.org
Subject: New FactCheck Article: Misstatement of the Union
Misstatement of the Union
The President burnishes the State of the Union through selective facts
and strategic omissions.
February 1, 2006
Summary
The President left out a few things when surveying the State of the
Nation:
* He proudly spoke of "writing a new chapter in the story of
self-government" in Iraq and Afghanistan and said the number of
democracies in the world is growing. He failed to mention that neither
Iraq nor Afghanistan yet qualify as democracies according to the very
group whose statistics he cited.
* Bush called for Congress to pass a line-item veto, failing to
mention that the Supreme Court struck down a line-item veto as
unconstitutional in 1998. Bills now in Congress would propose a
Constitutional amendment, but none have shown signs of life.
* The President said the economy gained 4.6 million jobs in the past
two-and-a-half years, failing to note that it had lost 2.6 million jobs in
his first two-and-a-half years in office. The net gain since Bush took
office is just a little more than 2 million.
* He talked of cutting spending, but only "non-security discretionary
spending." Actually, total federal spending has increased 42 percent since
Bush took office.
* He spoke of being "on track" to cut the federal deficit in half by
2009. But the deficit is increasing this year, and according to the
Congressional Budget Office it will decline by considerably less than half
even if Bush's tax cuts are allowed to lapse.
* Bush spoke of a "goal" of cutting dependence on Middle Eastern oil,
failing to mention that US dependence on imported oil and petroleum
products increased substantially during his first five years in office,
reaching 60 per cent of consumption last year.
Analysis
We found nothing that was factually incorrect in the President's Jan.
31 State of the Union address to Congress and the nation. However, we
did note some selective use of statistics. We also found that Bush
omitted some relevant facts that tended to make the state of the union
look less rosy than he presented.
Bush: In 1945, there were about two dozen lonely democracies in the
world. Today, there are 122. And we're writing a new chapter in the
story of self-government -- with women lining up to vote in
Afghanistan, and millions of Iraqis marking their liberty with purple
ink, and men and women from Lebanon to Egypt debating the rights of
individuals and the necessity of freedom.
Democracy & Freedom
The President spoke of the growing number of nations in the world that
live under democratic governments, and said "we're writing a new
chapter in the story of self-government" in Iraq and Afghanistan.
The President's numbers come from Freedom House, a nonprofit group
that tracks levels of democracy and freedom around the globe.
It is true, just as the President said, that there were 122
democracies in the world in 2005, but Iraq and Afghanistan are not yet
counted among them by Freedom House.
Also, Freedom House rates neither Iraq nor Afghanistan as "free." It
rates Iraq as "not free," with scores on civil liberties and political
freedom as low as those of Egypt. "Iraq gets points taken away for the
chaos that is associated with the insurgency, among other things,"
Freedom House's Arch Puddington told FactCheck.org. Afghanistan is
rated somewhat better but still only "partly free."
We asked Puddington why the highly publicized elections in Iraq and
Afghanistan don't yet qualify those countries to be counted as
democracies. "It=E2 s a flawed way of thinking to believe that
elections alone guarantee democracy," Puddington said. "You have to
have a reasonable rule of law, a reasonable amount of freedom of the
press, personal security. You have to have a fair and consistent
electoral process in place, and you have to have the people who are
elected then effectively governing the society."
Bush: I am pleased that members of Congress are working on earmark
reform, because the federal budget has too many special interest
projects. And we can tackle this problem together, if you pass the
line-item veto.
Line Item Veto
The President called for enactment of line-item veto power, but failed
to mention that the Supreme Court struck down a line-item veto as a
violation of the Constitution in 1998, after President Clinton
exercised the power once. The vote was 6 to 3, and one of the three
Justices who wanted to uphold the power was Sandra Day O'Connor, whose
resignation from the high court took effect earlier on the same day
Bush spoke. The President offered no explanation of how the veto might
be revived by legislation in a form that the current, more
conservative Supreme Court would approve, nor did he call specifically
for a Constitutional amendment.
This was Bush's first mention of a line-item veto in a State of the
Union address, though he and several of his subordinates have made
mention of his support for such a veto throughout his presidency.
Congress has so far shown very little interest, however. A bill to
amend the Constitution to create a line-item veto has been introduced
in every Congress during Bush's presidency, but all died in committee
without so much as a hearing. In the current Congress, Republican Sen.
Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina introduced such a bill in late
September to amend the Constitution to include the line-item veto, and
it currently sits dormant in the Judiciary Committee. There are no
co-sponsors. In the House, Republican Rep. Todd Russell Platts of
Pennsylvania introduced a similar bill in the House on Sept. 21, 2005
which was promptly referred to the Judiciary Committee, where it still
sits. There is one co-sponsor, Republican Rep. Robert Andrews of New
Jersey.
Bush: Our economy is healthy and vigorous, and growing faster than
other major industrialized nations. In the last two-and-a-half years,
America has created 4.6 million new jobs -- more than Japan and the
European Union combined. Even in the face of higher energy prices and
natural disasters, the American people have turned in an economic
performance that is the envy of the world.
Jobs
The President noted that the US has gained 4.6 million jobs in the
past two-and-a-half years. That's true. However, most of that gain
merely made up for the 2.6 million jobs that were lost during Bush's
first two-and-a-half years.
The graph below shows the cumulative change in jobs starting in
January 2001, when Bush first took office, and ending in December
2005, the most recent month for which the Bureau of Labor Statistics
has released figures for total nonfarm employment. (New figures for
January are due to be announced Feb. 2.)
However, when the President said "the American people have turned in
an economic performance that is the envy of the world," he was
standing on firm ground. The US unemployment rate for December was 4.9
per cent. That's significantly lower than most other industrialized
democracies. Unemployment in Germany stands at 9.3 per cent, France at
9.2 per cent, Canada at 6.5 per cent. Only Japan's rate of 4.6 per
cent and the United Kingdom's 4.8 per cent were better than the US,
according to latest figures from the Organisation for Economic
Cooperation and Development.
Bush: Keeping America competitive requires us to be good stewards of
tax dollars. Every year of my presidency, we've reduced the growth of
non-security discretionary spending, and last year you passed bills
that cut this spending. This year my budget will cut it again, and
reduce or eliminate more than 140 programs that are performing poorly
or not fulfilling essential priorities. By passing these reforms, we
will save the American taxpayer another $14 billion next year, and
stay on track to cut the deficit in half by 2009.
Spending
The President, speaking of being "good stewards of tax dollars,"
focused on one small part of the budget and did not mention rapid
growth in overall federal spending that has taken place under his
tenure.
He said "we've reduced the growth of non-security discretionary
spending," which is true. However, that category accounts for only
about 16 per cent of the whole federal budget, and it too has grown,
though not as rapidly as other categories.
Bush said bills were passed last year that would actually cut this
category, and that is correct. The decline is projected to be 0.5 per
cent, according to figures from the Office of Management and Budget.
Overall federal spending is up 42 per cent under Bush, according to
figures from the Congressional Budget Office. And CBO projects further
upward pressure on spending, including rising interest rates pushing
up the cost of servicing the swelling national debt, and rising
medical costs and Bush's new prescription drug benefit pushing up the
cost of Medicare. (Neither item is counted in the "discretionary"
category). CBO projects interest costs will increase 18 per cent in
the current fiscal year, and Medicare will go up 17 per cent.
The President proposed cutting $14 billion worth of programs and said
this would keep the US "on track to cut the deficit in half by 2009."
Not mentioned is that the deficit is going up this year. It was $317
billion in the fiscal year that ended last Oct. 30, and CBO projects
that this year's deficit will be at least $337 billion, and probably
$360 billion by the time added money is approved for flood insurance
and military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. CBO currently
projects the deficit to decline to $241 billion in fiscal 2009, but
that doesn't include the effects of making Bush's tax cuts permanent,
something Bush urged strongly in his speech.
Bush: Breakthroughs on this and other new technologies will help us
reach another great goal: to replace more than 75 percent of our oil
imports from the Middle East by 2025. By applying the talent and
technology of America, this country can dramatically improve our
environment, move beyond a petroleum-based economy, and make our
dependence on Middle Eastern oil a thing of the past.
Oil Imports
The President voiced a "goal" of replacing more than three-quarters
"of our oil imports from the Middle East" by the year 2025. He did not
mention that the US has grown more dependent on imported oil and
petroleum products since he took office.
According to most recent figures from the Energy Information
Administration, the US imported 60 percent of its oil and petroleum
products during the first 11 months of last year, up from just under
53 percent in President Clinton's last year in office. Last year, of
all the oil and petroleum products consumed in the US, 11.2 percent
came from Persian Gulf countries, according to the EIA. That is
actually down somewhat from Clinton's last year, when the Persian Gulf
countries supplied 12.6 percent.
Whether imports from the Middle East can ever be "a thing of the past"
is open to question. It is true that the US currently imports nearly
as much oil from nearby Canada (2.1 million barrels per day last year)
as it does from all Persian Gulf countries combined (2.3 million
barrels per day), but that's still a lot of oil to do without.
--By Brooks Jackson, with Justin Bank, James Ficaro and Emi Kolawole
Sources
"President Bush Delivers State of the Union Address," Office of the
White House Press Secretary, 31 Jan 2006.
"Freedom in the World 2006: Select Date from Freedom House's Annual
Global Survey of Political Rights and Civil Liberties." Freedom
House. 2006.
Clinton v. City of New York, 524 U. S. 417, 429 (1998)
"Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2006 ." Summary
Tables. Office of Management and Budget. February 2005. Table S.2
"Historical Tables, Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal
Year 2006." Office of Management and Budget. February 2005. Pp.
52, 97, 105, 125, 146.
Monthly Energy Review, Table 1.7: " Overview of U.S. Petroleum Trade "
US Energy Information Administration 25 Jan 2006.
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