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Date: Tue, 07 Nov 2006 20:47:33 -0500
To: improvetheworld &AElig umich.edu
From: Matt Rudary <mrudary &AElig umich.edu>
Subject: Re: 40% chance that democrats take both house and senate
Status: O

What makes 1 more plausible than a vast, right-wing conspiracy that 
changes vote counts across the board in every district without 
detection? Seriously?

OK, here are a couple hypotheses to test:

1) Young people are more likely to vote Democratic and are also more 
likely to answer exit polls than older people.

2) People who work 60+ hours a week are more likely to vote Republican 
and are less likely to answer exit polls than people who work fewer than 
60 hours per week.

3) People without jobs are more likely to vote Democratic and are more 
likely to answer exit polls than people with jobs.

There are all sorts of reasons opt-out surveys are less accurate than 
mandatory surveys. These hypotheses may have explanatory power.

Matt

Daniel Reeves wrote:
> and 6% chance that republicans keep both.
> 
> ... according to the prediction market at tradesports.com.
> 
> 
> Question: What do you all think of allegations that Republicans are 
> cheating?
> 
> Here's some damning evidence from the GOP itself:
>   http://www.gop.com/News/Read.aspx?ID=6718
> 
>  From that page:
>   "For reasons that remain unclear, Democratic voters are more likely 
> than Republicans to agree to interview requests from pollsters."
> 
> (Just to spell it out:  If the exit polls favor democrats and the real 
> polls favor republicans, there are two explanations:
>   1. a democratic bias in exit polls.
>   2. a republican bias in the real polls.
> What makes 1 more plausible?  Seriously, how do Republicans answer that? 
> This is scary!)
>