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And in case anyone doubts the objectivity of factcheck.org ...
For the few who don't know already -- and even Dick Cheney cited it in the VP
debates in 2004 -- factcheck.org (not .com!) is a wonderful resource no matter
where you fall on the political spectrum.
Oh, and in case anyone is getting the idea I'm a Bush fan, I also endorse this
:
http://www.fuckthestateoftheunion.com and would be interested to hear about
factual inaccuracies y'all may find in it.
(on the positive side, the American Competiveness Initiative is great news for
science funding)
Anyway, here's the other factcheck.org article:
---------- Forwarded message ----------
Date: Tue, 31 Jan 2006 11:43:05 -0800
From: FactCheck.org
Subject: New FactCheck Article: DNC State of the Union Attack
DNC State of the Union Attack
A DNC TV ad accuses Bush of breaking his word, but it strains some
facts in the process.
January 31, 2006
Summary
An ad released by the Democratic National Committee in advance of
President Bush's Jan. 31 State of the Union address accuses him of
breaking his word on jobs, education, body armor for troops and the
federal deficit. We find it misleading in most respects, but close to
the mark on the deficit.
Jobs:The ad gives a misleading picture of Bush's record on jobs, which
is weak but not as weak as the ad implies. It uses a misleading
statistic that focuses only on one category of employment:
manufacturing. In fact, counting all categories of employment, the
economy has squeezed out a gain of nearly 2 million jobs since Bush
took office five years ago.
Body Armor: The ad also takes liberties with a New York Times story
that said the lives of 300 troops might have been saved with
"improved" body armor. The ad calls it "proper" body armor, a term not
used by the Times story. Actually, some military experts say the
bulkier, heavier new armor would unduly weigh down troops fighting in
Iraq and Afghanistan.
Education: The ad says Bush's "No Child Left Behind" legislation has
been "underfunded" by nearly $10 billion. That's misleading because
federal aid for elementary schools and high schools actually has
increased 33 percent under Bush, according to the Congressional
Research Service. The "underfunding" refers to the gap that remains
between the higher spending levels signed by Bush and the
authorization level =E2 the theoretical maximum that could be
appropriated. In fact, federal appropritions usually fall short of
their authorized levels for education programs, in both Republican and
Democratic administrations.
Deficit: The ad is close to the mark, however, when it chides Bush on
the deficit, which the President said four years ago would be "small
and short-term." In fact, the deficit projected for this year is close
to a record in dollar terms and higher than average even as measured
as a percentage of US economic output. It is nearly the same as in
1968, when Lyndon Johnson was spending heavily for the Vietnam War and
his Great Society programs, though less than half what it reached in
1983 under Ronald Reagan.
Analysis
The Democratic National Committee announced Jan. 27 that it would air
a 60-second TV television ad on Las Vegas television stations.
National Journal's "Ad Spotlight" later reported that the ad would
also run Feb. 1 in Nashville, TN where the President is scheduled to
make his first speech after the State of the Union address. The new ad
is called "Broken Promises" and it features a series of quotes from
President Bush, some of which have also been featured in a Kerry
Campaign television advertisement that ran in 2004.
DNC Ad:
"Broken Promises"
Bush: We make a pledge. We keep our word.
On screen: Really?
Bush: When America works, America prospers. So, my economic security
plan can be summed up in one word: jobs.
On screen: 2.8 Million Manufacturing Jobs Lost. [BLS, 1/06]
Bush: The "No Child Left Behind Act" is opening the door of
opportunity to all of America's children.
On screen: No Child Left Behind Underfunded By Almost $10 Billion.
[CRS, 1/2006]
Bush: Our budget will run a deficit that will be small and short-term.
On screen: Deficit Of $337 Billion in 2006. [CBO, 1/26/06]
Bush: We should and must provide the best care for anybody who's
willing to put their life in harm's way.
On screen: Hundreds Of Lives Could Have Been Saved With Proper Body
Armor. [NYT, 1/6/06]
Bush: We make a pledge, we mean it. We keep our word.
On screen: 2.8 Million Manufacturing Jobs Lost. No Child Left Behind
Underfunded By Almost $10 Billion. Deficit Of $337 Billion In 2006.
Proper Armor Could Have Saved Hundreds Of Lives.
Bush: We keep our word.
On screen: America Deserves The Truth. www.democrats.org
Announcer: The Democratic National Committee is responsible for the
content of this advertisement.
Jobs
The ad shows Bush delivering his 2002 State of the Union address,
saying "my economic security plan can be summed up in one word: jobs."
It then shows a statistic from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS):
"2.8 million manufacturing jobs lost."
That is misleading. Actually, in the four years since Bush delivered
that line, the economy has gained nearly 3.9 million jobs. So to that
degree, at least, he has kept his word.
It's true the economy struggled during Bush's first term, and it is
also literally true that latest BLS figures show 2.8 million fewer
manufacturing jobs than when the President first took office. But
relatively few people work on production lines these days.
Manufacturing counts for only 10.6 percent of all employment. More
people work in professional and business employment (12.8 per cent),
education and health services (13.0 per cent) or government (16.3 per
cent) for example.
Furthermore, the decline in manufacturing jobs began years before Bush
took office. Between March of 1998 and the time Bush took office in
2001, the economy already had lost 536,000 manufacturing jobs. During
his entire eight-year tenure President Clinton barely broke even in
this category, holding onto a small net gain of 311,000 manufacturing
jobs despite the decline in his last three years.
Looking at total employment, it is fair to say that Bush's record on
jobs is weak, especially compared to Clinton's. The economy started to
lose jobs within two months of Bush's taking office in January 2001,
and continued to do so until the low point of May 2003. Latest figures
show a net gain of nearly 2 million jobs. But that compares to 17.6
million for Clinton during his first five years, and 22.7 million for
all eight years of Clinton's tenure.
Body Armor
The ad says "proper body armor could have saved hundreds of lives,"
citing a New York Times news story on screen. That's also misleading.
The Times story refers to "extra" body armor, and does not use the
word "proper" to describe it. Furthermore, the story places no blame
on Bush or the White House for failing to supply the bulkier, heavier
type of armor, which has been the subject of debate among military
planners at the Pentagon.
The Times story cites a =E2 =9Csecret Pentagon study=E2 =9D by medical
examiners of 93 Marines who died of upper-body wounds. The study found
that in 31 of those cases larger body-armor plates "'would have had
the potential to alter the fatal outcome." The Times reporter said
this "suggests" that 300 or more lives might have been saved with
"improved" body armor, though this is the reporter's conclusion,
extrapolating the findings over all combat deaths in Iraq, and not
part of the study itself.
Body armor already has undergone considerable improvements since the
Iraq War began. And not all military experts agree that the added bulk
and weight of more armor would be a good thing. After the Times story
ran, The Associated Press reported from Iraq quoting several soldiers
who didn't like the idea. Among them was Capt. Jamey Turner, 35, of
Baton Rouge, La. "You've got to sacrifice some protection for
mobility," The AP quoted him saying. "If you cover your entire body in
ceramic plates, you're just not going to be able to move." A few days
later the Times ran an opinion piece by military writer Andrew Exum, a
former infantry officer in Iraq and Afghanistan, who said newer body
armor unveiled by the Pentagon doubles its weight, from 16 pounds to
32 pounds for a medium-sized soldier. "At some point, the public's
desire to wrap our troops in a protective blanket of armor just gets
ridiculous," Exum stated. Nevertheless, the Army placed an emergency,
$70-million order for 230,000 ceramic armor side plates with
California-based Ceradyne Inc. on Jan. 20.
Education Funding
The ad also faults Bush for "underfunding" his No Child Left Behind
Act (NCLB) by almost $10 billion. The NCLB Act instituted mandatory
testing of students in reading and mathematics and requires schools to
make progress toward statewide proficiency goals.
The DNC cites as its source a recent Congressional Research Service
report, which actually shows that federal appropriations for federal
programs supporting grades kindergarten through 12th grade have
increased by one-third under Bush, to more than $37 billion in the
current fiscal year ending Oct. 30. The CRS report does not offer any
support for the Democratic claim that Bush promised additional federal
funds when the NCLB ad was passed with bipartisan support in 2002.
Since then, the CRS report notes, "there has been a continuing
discussion regarding the appropriations 'promised' and the resulting
'shortfall' when the enacted appropriations are compared to
authorization levels." Authorization levels are dollar amounts
contained in the legislation that creates federal programs. But before
any money can be spent a separate appropriation measure must be
passed, which seldom provides the maximum amount of money that is
authorized. As the CRS report notes, "In the past, education programs
with specified authorization amounts generally have been funded at
lower levels; few have been funded at levels equal to or higher than
the specified authorization amount."
In the case of programs affected by NCLB, the CRS report calculated
that appropriations were $9.1 billion less than the authorization
levels last year, and $12.0 billion less in the current fiscal year.
That is what the DNC ad calls "underfunding." W e find it misleading
to use the term "underfunding" without explaining what that really
means.
Budget Deficit
The ad quotes Bush as saying "Our budget will run a deficit that will
be small and short-term," and shows on screen: "Deficit Of $337
Billion in 2006." The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) is cited as
the source.
Democrats have a point here. Bush=E2 s deficit is not =E2 =9Csmall =E2 =9D by
any measure. The CBO in fact predicts it will be even larger than the
$337 billion figure shown in the ad, assuming that Congress approves
spending that CBO says will probably be needed to fund military
activities in Iraq and Afghanistan, and for flood insurance claims.
Those increases would push the deficit to $360 billion. That would be
close to the record of $413 billion recorded in 2004.
Bush=E2 s deficit this year is larger than average even measured the
way most economists prefer, as a percentage of the entire US economy
(gauged by Gross Domestic Product, or GDP). CBO expects the deficit to
be about 2.8 percent of GDP this year. The average since 1962 has been
2.2 percent.
Viewed in historical context, the current deficit is nearly the same
as the 2.9 percent of GDP recorded in 1968, when Lyndon Johnson was
pressing both the Vietnam War and domestic spending for his Great
Society programs. Bush's projected deficit would be less than half
what it was in 1983 under Ronald Reagan, when tax cuts and military
spending pushed the deficit to 6 percent of GDP.
Like the jobs statement, the Bush quote comes from his State of the
Union address Jan. 29, 2002:
Bush, 2002: To achieve these great national objectives -- to win
the war, protect the homeland, and revitalize our economy -- our
budget will run a deficit that will be small and short-term, so long
as Congress restrains spending and acts in a fiscally responsible
manner.
Note that Bush left himself an out =E2 saying "so long as Congress
restrains spending." However, Bush has yet to veto any congressionally
approved spending measure and has pushed to renew and extend tax cuts.
While Democrats criticize him mostly for tax cuts, his own party's
conservatives have criticized him at times for allowing spending to
rise rapidly.
=E2 By Brooks Jackson & Emi Kolawole
Sources
Bureau of Labor Statistics, "The Employment Situation: December 2005,"
news release, 6 Jan 2006.
Michael Moss, "Pentagon Study Links Fatalities To Body Armor, New York
Times 7 Jan 2006:A1.
Ryan Lenz, "U.S. soldiers question use of more armor despite Pentagon
study," 7 Jan 2006.
Andrew Exum, "All Dressed Up With No Way to Fight," New York Times 14
Jan 2006:A15.
"Ceradyne, Inc. Receives $70 Million Ceramic Body Armor Order," press
release, Ceradyne, Inc. 20 Jan 2006.
"Army signs emergency contract for body armor," The Associated Press,
21 Jan 2006.
Paul M. Irwin, "K-12 Education Programs: Recent Appropriations,"
Congressional Research Service, 4 Jan 2006.
"The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2007 to 2016,"
Congressional Budget Office, 26 Jan 2006.
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